Possible scenario
Regional Strikes Widen
25% Chance
The Houthis conclude that long-range attacks are their best way to blunt the government offensive and force external mediation on favorable terms. Saudi Arabia and the UAE strengthen air defenses, while the United States increases naval and intelligence coordination around the Red Sea.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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