Possible scenario
Mediation Regains Traction
25% Chance
Oman, with backing from Russia and China, uses the palace attack and Riyadh airport strike to argue that escalation is becoming too costly for all sides. The Houthis avoid direct Saudi talks publicly but allow indirect channels to reopen through Muscat.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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