Possible scenario
Counteroffensive Expands
35% Chance
The Presidential Leadership Council treats the palace strike as an attempt to decapitate the recognized government and accelerates operations toward Houthi-held territory. Saudi Arabia and the UAE provide intelligence, air-defense support, and logistics, but avoid a formal large-scale re-entry into the war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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