Possible scenario
West Accelerates Defenses
20% Chance
The anticipated Russian strike prompts NATO governments to announce faster air-defense and grid-protection assistance. The near-term market impact is concentrated in defense and grid-equipment names rather than broad macro assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Utilities +0.1%
Tickers
- +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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