Possible scenario
Grid Suffers Outages
31% Chance
Russia's next large strike damages substations, thermal generation, or high-voltage transmission links despite Ukrainian preparations. The result is serious but localized stress rather than a nationwide grid collapse.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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