Possible scenario
Defenses Blunt Strike
37% Chance
Ukraine's layered air defenses, electronic warfare units, decoys, and grid-isolation procedures limit damage from the expected Russian barrage. This is the most likely outcome because Kyiv has had several days of warning and Russia's recent mass attacks have revealed repeatable launch patterns.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Utilities +0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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