Possible scenario
Limited Retaliatory Cycle
25% Chance
Saudi Arabia responds with limited strikes, intelligence sharing, or coalition action against Houthi launch infrastructure while trying to avoid a broader Yemen war. The Houthis answer with rhetoric or low-scale launches, keeping markets focused on recurrence risk rather than a full regional conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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