Possible scenario
Contained Refinery Disruption
45% Chance
Saudi Arabia contains physical damage at the Rabigh refinery, keeping crude exports and most refined-product flows intact. Riyadh increases air defenses and diplomatic messaging but avoids a direct military escalation that would endanger the 2023 Saudi-Houthi de-escalation track.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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