Possible scenario
Air Defense Surge
20% Chance
The scale of the energy campaign prompts faster Western assistance, including Patriot interceptors, NASAMS ammunition, generators, grid equipment, and repair funding. The response does not end the strikes, but it reduces the probability of a winter grid collapse.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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