Possible scenario
Severe Winter Blackouts
25% Chance
Russian missile and drone waves destroy enough thermal generation, substations, and high-voltage equipment to force prolonged outages before winter. Kyiv prioritizes hospitals, water systems, railways, and defense production, while households and industry face deeper power rationing.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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