Contained Military Escalation

The most likely path is a limited military escalation between the Houthis and Saudi-backed Yemeni forces without an immediate collapse of the Saudi ceasefire proposal. Riyadh and the Presidential Leadership Council retaliate to preserve credibility, while both sides avoid actions that would force a full Saudi re-entry into the war.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.