• 

  36%

  −0.2%

  Contained Military Escalation

  The most likely path is a limited military escalation between the Houthis and Saudi-backed Yemeni forces without an immediate collapse of the Saudi ceasefire proposal. Riyadh and the Presidential Leadership Council retaliate to preserve credibility, while both sides avoid actions that would force a full Saudi re-entry into the war.

  Energy +0.4% · Industrials +0.1% · Consumer Services −0.1%

• 

  29%

  +0.3%

  Ceasefire Track Revives

  Despite the missile strike, Riyadh may conclude that escalation raises the cost of the war and renew the $1 billion ceasefire package through Omani and UN channels. The Houthis could use the battlefield success to negotiate from strength rather than widen the conflict immediately.

  Energy −0.4% · Consumer Services +0.3%

• 

  21%

  −0.7%

  Red Sea Risk Expands

  The Houthis could exploit their Red Sea coast gains and the successful strike to threaten commercial shipping or Saudi logistics nodes. This would shift the story from a Yemeni battlefield event to a regional trade and energy-security concern.

  Energy +1.3% · Industrials −0.6% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.4%

• 

  14%

  −0.1%

  Regional Diplomacy Strains

  Saudi Arabia may frame the strike as evidence of deeper Iranian support for Houthi missile operations, testing the Saudi-Iran de-escalation channel. The outcome depends on whether Oman and China-backed Saudi-Iran contacts can prevent the Yemen front from spilling into wider regional confrontation.

  Energy +0.3% · Industrials +0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.