Possible scenario
Talks Break Down
30% Chance
The refusal to halt fighting causes negotiations to lose momentum, especially if Russia conducts visible missile or drone attacks during the process. Kyiv and European capitals conclude that Moscow is using talks to buy time rather than negotiate a durable settlement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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