Possible scenario
Talks Under Fire
45% Chance
Russia and Ukraine continue indirect or limited direct talks, but Moscow refuses Zelensky's demand for a full ceasefire during negotiations. This is the most likely path because both sides want diplomatic optionality while preserving battlefield leverage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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