Possible scenario
Conditional Ceasefire Reemerges
15% Chance
Despite Moscow's rejection of a blanket pause, mediators attempt a narrower ceasefire covering air strikes, energy infrastructure, or parts of the eastern front. This path is less likely but plausible because both sides may test limited measures without conceding core territorial claims.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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