Possible scenario
Proposal Mostly Adopted
45% Chance
The Bank of England, PRA and FCA proceed with most of the proposal, linking roughly 100 regulatory thresholds to nominal GDP to prevent firms from becoming subject to tougher rules purely because the economy grows. This fits the post-Brexit competitiveness agenda and follows earlier UK easing of ring-fencing and capital requirements.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.9%
- Business Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.