Possible scenario
Oil Sites Targeted
20% Chance
The Houthis shift from border harassment back to attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, consistent with the late-September strikes on oil and military sites. Even if damage is limited, markets would price a higher near-term risk premium into crude.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
- Consumer Services -0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.