Possible scenario
Border Fire Persists
45% Chance
The most likely path is continued low-intensity Houthi launches toward southern Saudi provinces such as Asir, Jazan and Najran. Riyadh avoids a major escalation while reinforcing air defenses and civil-protection measures near the Yemen border.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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