Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment Returns
25% Chance
Oman and the UN use the rising tempo of Houthi attacks to press both sides back toward the de-escalation track that had advanced in 2023. Riyadh has a strong incentive to prevent attacks on border towns from expanding into a broader oil or urban-security crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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