Possible scenario
Speaker Vote Friction
20%
−0.5%
A smaller-than-advertised Democratic margin, late races, or demands from ideological factions complicate Jeffries’s path. The outcome still likely ends with Jeffries as speaker, but the process revives memories of the McCarthy and Johnson speakership fights.
What it moves
- Technology−0.6%
- Finance−0.6%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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