Oversight-First House

16%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Jeffries becomes speaker and uses the new majority to focus on investigations, subpoenas, and hearings rather than large legislative deals. This path is plausible if the Senate or White House remains in Republican hands and lawmaking space is narrow.

What it moves

Healthcare−0.5%
Business Services+0.4%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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