Possible scenario
Lockdown Contains March
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the government, police, Rangers, and army units prevent PTI supporters from entering central Islamabad. Arrests continue, mobile-data curbs persist in parts of Punjab and the capital, but the confrontation remains largely contained.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.