Possible scenario
Clashes Spread Nationally
25% Chance
The march is blocked in Islamabad, but the crackdown triggers wider protests in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. This would deepen Pakistan’s political paralysis and raise near-term risk premiums, though the immediate global-market effect remains modest.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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