Possible scenario
Compromise Emerges
18% Chance
A negotiated off-ramp remains plausible because all sides have incentives to avoid another May 9-style confrontation. Courts, clerics, business groups, or provincial intermediaries could help turn the march into a delayed or smaller political event.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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