Prolonged Coalition Deadlock

38%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

No bloc can assemble 61 seats because Netanyahu’s 53-seat camp lacks partners and the anti-Netanyahu parties remain divided over Arab party support. Israel remains under a caretaker government while President Isaac Herzog cycles mandates between Benjamin Netanyahu, Benny Gantz, and Yair Lapid.

What it moves

Industrials+0.2%
Consumer Services−0.1%
Market volatility▲ up
Oil prices▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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