Possible scenario
Tacit US Acceptance
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Washington continues to avoid condemning UK, French and Canadian restrictions on settlement goods while maintaining formal support for Israel's security. This fits the 2026 pattern of sharper US criticism of Israeli settlement policy without a full break in the bilateral relationship.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.