Possible scenario
Israeli Retaliation Escalates
20% Chance
Israel could respond with diplomatic or targeted trade retaliation, especially if domestic coalition partners demand a tougher answer. This remains less likely than containment because Israel still values US and European security ties, but the risk is credible.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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