Possible scenario
Managed Diplomatic Compromise
25% Chance
The US may try to prevent the settlement bans from widening into a broader Israel trade fight by promoting labeling, customs guidance and humanitarian exemptions. This outcome would preserve allied unity while allowing governments to claim compliance with international law concerns.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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