Possible scenario
Investigation Contains Crisis
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that police treat the two attacks as serious but locally contained criminal cases rather than evidence of a coordinated national threat. Prosecutors focus on the detained teenagers, online communications, and possible imitation behavior while schools remain open under heightened vigilance.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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