Possible scenario
Republican Firewall Holds
22% Chance
Republicans blunt Senate Majority PAC's Ohio offensive and improve late in North Carolina. The spending shift is remembered as a failed attempt to turn polling leads into actual Senate seats.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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