Possible scenario
Saudi Security Response
25% Chance
Saudi Arabia reinforces air defenses and coordinates with the United States and Gulf partners to protect major airports. The market treats this as a contained security escalation unless retaliation draws a wider Houthi response.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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