Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-escalation
23% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and the United States press the Houthis and Saudi Arabia into a narrow pause focused on civilian aviation. Airlines cautiously restore flights once regulators judge the near-term missile risk to be lower.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.7%
- Energy -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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