Possible scenario
Localized Flight Freeze
42% Chance
Airlines keep most Saudi-bound services suspended while insurers, regulators, and security teams reassess missile risk around Riyadh, Jeddah, and Dammam. The disruption remains largely an aviation and insurance issue rather than a broader Gulf conflict.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.9%
- Energy +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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