Possible scenario
Saudi Supply Holds
45% Chance
Saudi Arabia sustains the post-war export surge by combining Gulf loadings with Red Sea and pipeline routes. Asian refiners accept the cargoes despite elevated insurance costs, easing immediate fears of a severe crude shortage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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