Possible scenario
Containment Takes Hold
20% Chance
The United States, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other Gulf partners create a more predictable security framework for tankers. The improvement does not end the Iran war, but it lowers the near-term probability of another abrupt export interruption.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.3%
- Industrials +1.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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