Possible scenario
Iran Disrupts Again
25% Chance
Iran treats the Saudi shipment surge as an attempt to weaken its leverage and resumes pressure around Hormuz or regional export infrastructure. The outcome would reintroduce a geopolitical risk premium into crude prices within one to two trading sessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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