Possible scenario
Sanctions Security Frictions
22% Chance
The Syria route draws scrutiny because it creates new revenue streams and security dependencies inside Syria. Even after the 2025 sanctions relief, Washington, Ankara and Iraqi factions may contest how the flows are monitored and who receives transit payments.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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