Possible scenario
Ceyhan Pipeline Reasserts
25% Chance
Baghdad, Erbil and Ankara move back toward the higher-capacity Turkey pipeline as the preferred export channel. Trucking through Syria remains a backup route rather than the main outlet for northern Iraqi crude.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.