Possible scenario
Kyiv Allies Push Back
25% Chance
Ukraine and European governments publicly reject any China-hosted settlement process that excludes Kyiv. NATO states respond by trying to preserve leverage through new arms commitments, diplomatic pressure on Washington and warnings that no territorial concessions can be imposed on Ukraine.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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