Possible scenario
Diplomacy Stalls Again
22% Chance
The proposed meeting remains rhetoric rather than a scheduled diplomatic event. China and Russia avoid committing to a timetable, while Washington faces allied resistance and uncertainty over what a summit without Zelensky could legally deliver.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Technology +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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