Possible scenario
China Summit Advances
35% Chance
Trump proceeds with a China-hosted format that excludes Zelensky, arguing that a great-power bargain is the fastest path to ending the war. Beijing uses the meeting to elevate its peace-plan role, while Moscow gains diplomatic legitimacy without first making battlefield concessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.