Possible scenario
Street Conflict Escalates
20% Chance
Public anger over the Bronx shooting grows after Mullin rejects a pause, producing demonstrations near ICE facilities and planned enforcement locations. This scenario remains less likely than a managed standoff but would create the largest near-term disruption.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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