Possible scenario
Enforcement Continues Narrowly
40% Chance
Mullin maintains that ICE will not accept a citywide pause after the Bronx shooting, but DHS narrows the pace and visibility of operations in New York. This is the most likely path because it preserves federal authority while reducing the risk of another confrontation.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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