Possible scenario
Trade War Escalates
20% Chance
The weaker Canadian outlook hardens political positions rather than accelerating compromise. Washington or Ottawa adds targeted measures, deepening pressure on industrial production, commodities, and cross-border supply chains.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.