Possible scenario
Managed Tariff Slowdown
45% Chance
The most likely path is a shallow Canadian slowdown rather than a sudden contraction. U.S. tariffs continue to weigh on exporters, business investment, and freight volumes, while the Bank of Canada keeps policy cautiously supportive.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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