Possible scenario
Partial Tariff Relief
25% Chance
Canada and the United States move toward selective exemptions or quota-based relief as growth damage becomes more visible. The most exposed manufacturers, metals producers, and transport firms rebound, though a full trade reset remains unlikely.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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