Possible scenario
Washington-Kyiv Rupture
27% Chance
Trump converts public criticism into policy pressure by conditioning military aid, air-defense deliveries, intelligence sharing, or diplomatic backing on a change in Kyiv's negotiating team. This would deepen uncertainty over Ukraine's battlefield position and U.S. alliance reliability.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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