Possible scenario
Delegation Compromise
38% Chance
Zelensky avoids a direct personal concession to Trump by naming a senior Ukrainian official, most likely Rustem Umerov or Andriy Yermak, to lead day-to-day ceasefire negotiations. Zelensky remains the constitutional decision-maker, letting Washington claim a process change while Kyiv preserves sovereignty over any final deal.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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