Possible scenario
Russia Exploits Rift
22% Chance
The Kremlin uses Trump's remarks to harden its negotiating position, arguing that Zelensky lacks legitimacy or cannot be the final signatory. Russia may pair this with new strikes to increase pressure on Kyiv and test whether Washington will distance itself further.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.2%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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