Possible scenario
Lula Comeback
22% Chance
Lula recovers in the final stretch by mobilizing poorer voters, moderates and anti-Bolsonaro conservatives alarmed by Flávio's Supreme Court comments. The result would surprise the market relative to the first post-runoff poll, but the reaction depends on whether Lula offers policy continuity or a leftward fiscal turn.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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